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Oct 20 2017.
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پنج شنبه, 22 تیر 1396 ساعت 03:14

Syria in Putin's mouth!

An article about Russia's intervention in Syria
Written by Mohammad Gharagozloo
( This article has been dedicated to Dear Marcell, who translated “The Unholy War....”  from English to Dutch.)
Introduction:
At least, two decades after soviet union collapsed (1990), the world became one polar under the USA's hegemony! But all documents, witnesses have declared that a new cold war has begun! In one hand camp of Russia and China with their local allies, on the other hand the USA and Europe's camp have formed new world order! Although after the election of Trump, step by step a big rift has been formed in the west's camp. This situation has given an appropriate opportunity to Russia for solving its problem to interfere in international relationships. Russia has developed as a new power by a government that has been risen by Putin. The unholy war* in Syria has proved my claim! As we know Syria has contributed to Russia's self- perceived rebirth as a new imperialist. In other words the gloomy story goes back to the first cold war, when the Soviet Union gained influence in Syria in 1970 giving aid and arms. After the collapse of the S.U(1990) its influence reduced. In 2000 Putin and Assad became president of Russia and Syria. They did not have a close relationship, but Putin began to spread and expand the Russian army and develop Russia as a great power. This point that "What is Russia seeking in Syria?” will be evaluated in the following!

1, In the summer of 2015, Assad was fighting for his survival. Various groups of terrorist fighters, those who had been gathered from everywhere and had been supported by some of local governments, were advancing. Assad's regime day by day was retreating with the military losing ground. Many big cities such as Aleppo had been occupied by fighters. It was July 2015 that Assad asked for Russia's direct military intervention and immediately Putin accepted his request. Assad had also asked Islamic Republic of Iran and they dispatched their specially army ( Sepah Quds under Qassem Solaymani leadership) to Syria. Furthermore Iran had ordered Lebanon's Hezbollah to help and support Assad's army.

2, Iran is an important ally to Russia. Iran is buying Russia's weapons, engaging in cooperation pipeline project and buying nuclear power plants. Iran has paid remarkable money for Russia's long - range S - 300 anti aircraft system. Syria is a reliable ally to Iran. Iran helps Hezbollah through Syria's land. When Hafiz Assad was the president, Syria supported Iran's government against Saddam Hussein. Iran has donated many barrels free and cheap oil to Syria. As a result Iran, Syria plus Hezbollah are a unite camp under Russia's leadership. Russia's relationship with Syria can be traced back to the mid-twentieth century, a period which saw strategic shifts of alliances in the Middle East.

3, Hafiz Assad had signed an agreement to permit it’s ally use the port of Tartus in return for advanced weapons for Syria, thus turning the port into a facility for maintenance of smaller ships in the black sea fleet. Then in 2005 Bashar succeeded in having Russian write off three - fourths of Syrian's debt for arms sales. Increased Russia - Syrian military cooperation followed with upgrading  Tartus port for larger ships.

4, Seventy percent of Russian's foreign incomes is from oil and gas export, sixty percent of the state budget is from energy export revenues. Pipelines passed through energy transfer states Georgia, Azerbaijan and Ukraine on their way to European markets, non of which is longer under Putin's control. Bashar decided which and whose pipelines go through Syrian. another reason for Putin supports him. In 2009, Bashar refused to sign a gas agreement with Qatar, which had been intended to run a pipeline from Iran through Turkey and Syria but the deal would have bypassed Russian and as a result Assad turned it down!

5, The USA – led invasion to Iraq, which deposed long-time dictator Saddam (2003) and the 2011 toppling of Qaddafi’s regime- helped by an international coalition bombing campaign – left Moscow deprived of key allies. Russia wants to prove a big point : there is a uni polar world, where the USA sets the rules and people follow them. Now Putin is sending a message to the world: Russia is still a force to be reckoned with.
6, Russia is trying to challenge that by exerting its position as a power that needs to be involved in the decision- making and forcing the international community, specially the USA, led coalition to take it seriously.

7, Russia is struggling against Isis in Syria because they are concerned about the spread of Isis and other Islamist terrorists. Putin fears that Isis victory in Syria would have reverberations at home, as some of the top military commanders of Isis are Russian speakers of Chechen origin. It has been estimated that more than 2000 fighters have joined Isis from Caucasus, Central Asia. As we know Russia has been the target of repeated brutal terrorist attacks carried out by Jihadist rebels. Islamic rebels from the southern Russia, republic Chechenya have been fighting for independence since the 1990.

8, Russia has created a situation that destabilises Europe with side effects terrorism, refugees and rise of populism ( Le pen in France, Geert Wilders in the Netherlands etc.) Russia intends to destroy European Union.

9, Russia has gotten stuck in Ukraine's crisis and needs a way out. Putin would like to shift the international community's attention to something else.

10, Russia had a long – term relationship with Qaddafi and had several billions dollars worth of arms sales pending to Libya. Russia has learnt some important lessons of war in Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya, one of which was, Russia should not have approved the U.N resolution that helped the USA backed NATO intervention. As you know in 2011 the USA had pressed Russia, not to vote a security council resolution against Qaddafi, which launched what Clinton explained as a "humanitarian mission" to prevent the killing of people by the police. But as NATO intensified its bombing air camping, it became appear that the international intervention mainly focused on getting rid of Qaddafi with a view to nation building - something that had miserably failed in Iraq under the George W Bush administration. Iraq's war (2003) had a great lesson for Russia. "If you do not interfere in a country that is one of your allies, you will lose your benefit and situation. Reluctant to keep and follow in Saddam Hussein's unfortunate a path. Qaddafi abandoned his quest  for a nuclear program and began working with the USA against the rising of Islamist terrorist, but paradoxically, the western supported rebels and fighters, those who have stood up against Qaddafi and finally killed him then joined Isis! Russia would subsequently block any future U.N resolution proposing military action against Assad. Russia believed " if Libya breaks up and Al - Quida  takes roots there, no one will benefit, including the USA, because extremists will end up in the north Caucasus."

Finally. Aleppo remembers Rome, Nero dead, Assad will die.....
Above sentence has been written on a Aleppo's wall. Aleppo has been destroyed while war has continued, may be the one who had written this sentence was killed! But history is alive. People too. It does not matter that Russia is a strong government, I believe that history has sentenced Assad to death. Undoubtedly Assad will die like all dictators. This is the rul of history The future is ours.....
12 July 2017
Tehran. Iran
Dr Mohammad Gharagozloo

References:
•    http://iran-tribune.com/index.php?option=com_k2&view=item&id=64799:the-unholy-war-from-paris-and-london-to-kabul-and-tehran&Itemid=761
What does Russia want in Syria?:
By Mattew Chance ---
Imran Rahaman---
Raisa Ostapenko----Cambridge Globalist
Jiri Valenta and Leni Friedman Valenta--- Middle East

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